Le pétrole plonge

Cette nuit ou ce matin pour certains, un événement de grande ampleur sur le pétrole est survenu.

L’or noir, plus précisément le WTI (West Texas Intermediate), a plongé de manière hyper brutale aux Etats-Unis, atteignant un plus bas qui n’avait jamais été vu depuis 2001.

L’explication est qu’il a chuté à cause de la contraction de la demande mondiale et des craintes sur le stockage. Les stocks de brut ont bondi de 48% pour atteindre 55 millions de Barils depuis fin février. Le “hub” a une capacité de stockage de 76 millions de barils. De plus, 198 Millions de barils sont stockés à l’étranger (source: ZH). On continue ainsi de craindre que les capacités de stockages soient débordées (c’est le cas de dire!).

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Commodities have never been so cheap

A graph appeared to me recently and I would like to share it with you. The S&P GSCI commodity index divided by the SP500.What We can see :

a) Commodities are a gift at this price (relatively of course)

b) SP500 index is too expensive.

Propably the truth is in the middle.

Please note that the GSCI index is mainly composed by energy and the metals are only representing less than 10%..

About Metals, a noticable fact is that – in the US – almost all the mining stocks (92%) are hitting their 52 weeks lows.

BGMI index (Barron’s) compared to gold is also at a lowest level ever.

It means that the mining stocks are really undevalued and when the sector will turn (please read my former articles on sentiments and technical https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/sentiments-measures-bottoming-on-gold/ and  https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/gold-after-the-measures-of-sentiments-here-is-the-technical-view/ the stocks increase could be violent.

Happy investing and patience !

 

 

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