Commodities have never been so cheap

A graph appeared to me recently and I would like to share it with you. The S&P GSCI commodity index divided by the SP500.What We can see :

a) Commodities are a gift at this price (relatively of course)

b) SP500 index is too expensive.

Propably the truth is in the middle.

Please note that the GSCI index is mainly composed by energy and the metals are only representing less than 10%..

About Metals, a noticable fact is that – in the US – almost all the mining stocks (92%) are hitting their 52 weeks lows.

BGMI index (Barron’s) compared to gold is also at a lowest level ever.

It means that the mining stocks are really undevalued and when the sector will turn (please read my former articles on sentiments and technical https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/sentiments-measures-bottoming-on-gold/ and  https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/gold-after-the-measures-of-sentiments-here-is-the-technical-view/ the stocks increase could be violent.

Happy investing and patience !

 

 

www.pdf24.org    Envoyer l'article en PDF   

Gold, after the measures of sentiments, here is the technical view

After my last article where I was showing that the positive sentiments on gold were at the lowest, here is a new comment on the technical reality.

As the sentiments are at the lowest, the contributors are playing their feelings on the metal and are taking positions in the way of their own anticipations, this seems totally logical !

It generates sometime exaggerations and induces Buy or Sell signals.

It sends us backward to past situations.

First of all the graphs:

Hedge Funds are now short !

The commitments of traders (COT)

explanations here : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commitments_of_Traders

And non-commercials going into negative zone too

And comparison with the GLD’s behaviour (SPDR Gold Shares) ETF sur l’or : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPDR_Gold_Shares

And especially the percentage bulls on mines

Conclusion – if History can teach anything to us – the last time when the net short on gold were like this was in 2001 and what happened to gold ?

 

For those who are positive on gold and mines and interested (do your own due diligence) in a stock (developer), I have a stock which can be a very good play for the next rebound

(If you would like to contact me to know more about this company, feel free: stock@crottaz-finance.ch

Happy investing

You can follow me on twitter : https://twitter.com/crofin67

www.pdf24.org    Envoyer l'article en PDF   

Sentiments measures bottoming on Gold

There are several sentiment(s) indicators and these one’s are very often calling for movements in advance especially when sentiments are at extreme levels.

For example, when more than 85% of the contributors are bullish on an underlying like the USD, the currency fall during the following period.

Today, we see a very pessimistic level on gold future (silver and so on), which let me think that the metal(s) is (are) not going to fall lower may be strongly rebounding. Only a few sellers left, the main part of them have sold or taken down side positions.

 

DSI (Daily sentiment Index : http://www.trade-futures.com/dsireport.php)

Today (August 15th) the level is very low on GOLD 6% bulls

For the Elliottists :

(Elliott wave : https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp)

Never seen so many short positions (Managed Money)

We can also add the SP GSCI / SP500 ratio which is at lowest. This shows a entry point on commodities (the index is build like as follow:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_GSCI)

Coming back on Gold, GLD SPDR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPDR_Gold_Shares is showing a buy zone.

Conclusion: gold rebound (and silver) are not so far.

For those who are positive on gold and mines and interested (do your own due diligence) in a stock (developer), I have a stock which can be a very good play for the next rebound

If you would like to contact me to know more about this company, feel free: stock@crottaz-finance.ch

Happy investing

You can follow me on twitter : https://twitter.com/crofin67

www.pdf24.org    Envoyer l'article en PDF   

Mines will follow gold price increase and it could be violent

Dear readers,

In one of my past articles, I launched a screaming buy on gold.

It was mid October 2015 and gold price was quoting around 1050 $: http://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/lor-et-les-mines-cest-parti-mon-goldy/ (sorry only in french but fell free to use an internet translator, it works well)

From that period, the gold rallied 280 $ for a performance of +26%, mines followed the move.

This year 2018 something strange happened.

A big de-correlation between gold price evolution and mines

I have no explanation, but probably gold mines are paper gold and may be people do not really understand the industry. For the moment the sector looks like dead but:

Lire la suite

Gold vs Mines (english version)

After my french articles “c’est parti mes goldy”

2017: http://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/cest-parti-goldy-cest-reparti-goldy/

and end 2015: http://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/lor-et-les-mines-cest-parti-mon-goldy/

In which, I was lucky to show low points, I am coming back on gold, the mines and their linked (or not) evolution .

First of all, a graph from  This video (Out end of August, video to listen if you find technical analysis interesting).

The autor is speaking about the next gold increase, it’s only starting.

Back on today’s note

Do we have to own Gold or Mines and do have Mines a Leverage compared to Gold ?

You will find a partial answer in the following graph:

from 1983, owning Mines instead of Gold does not seem to be profitable, especially from 2008, BUT …

A come-back could happen if Gold stays steady or continues its increase (which seems to be the case) and Mines could make a multiple.

And more interesting, the following graph number 2, shows us interesting elements.

Gold beat Mines (in red) from 2008 till 2015 (remember Gold fell from 2011 till 2015) and it is only recently that Mines started to beat Gold again. (probably showing that Mines have a leverage versus Gold (in both ways)).

A more fundamental element: Production Peak seems to have occured in 2015

Conclusion: We have to be invested in Mines when gold is raising in price and the first graph “GOLD vs Mines” is pointing a huge potential for Mines today.

Happy Investing

www.pdf24.org    Envoyer l'article en PDF