Markets are near their historical tops and gold too.
But banks are still lagging and it has been lasting for years.
Could be a global solvency problem, Mr U. is telling me.
We will go through a depression (way too much debt, 331% of World GDP according to latest figures from the IIF). May be depression will be deflationary at first, and maybe/probably we’ll have hyperinflation later (currencies losing all of their value). The all system is at risk. Be very careful with your money.
Charts are monthly, last data July 24, 2020.
More recent data (a week old) of the Price to Book Value Ratio on a few banks:
From 1900 to the end of 2019, all currencies lost their value relative to gold.
The British Pound lost 99.63% and the US dollar 98.64%. Even worse, for the Japanese Yen and the French Franc.
The German currency lost its value completely twice and is about to go for a third time !
The German Mark called the Goldmark (backed by gold) was introduced in 1873. With the outbreak of World War I, the Mark was taken off the gold standard and became the Papiermark and briefly the Rentenmark in 1923.
The German currency lost all of its value.
From 1924, a new currency appeared, the Reichsmark. The German currency also lost all of its value and disappeared in 1945.
In 1948, a new currency appeared, the Deutsche Mark. In 1999, this currency became the Euro (at a rate of 1.95583 DM for one €). The German currency will probably lose all of its value for the third time. So far, it has lost 94.9% of its value relative to gold.
What about the Swiss Franc, the strongest currency in the world?
The mighty Swiss Franc has lost 92.69% of its value relative to gold during the period 1900-2019.
So, gold, the “barbarous relic” has proven to be really useful to keep the purchasing power over the years.
The US equity market plunged sharply thereafter (March), mining stocks too and gold briefly. Today, after the huge rebound in the American market from the lows, what is the situation?
The SP500 is at – 4.1% (after a collapse of -35%)
Mining stocks (GDX) are at + 14.2%
Gold is + 7.9%
Sometimes graphics speak more than words. Below find 3 graphics that are really scary for those who remain invested in the SP500.
The Put / Call ratio is at the lowest of the lowest
Many of the stocks in the SP500 have an RSI above 70 ( overbought level), the number of stocks above their 50-day moving averages is at its highest in 20 years and it is the biggest upward rally in the market. ‘history.
Small traders bought calls like never before (very bad sign for a continuation of the rise)
This last graph makes me think of the abbreviation FOMO (Fear of Missing Opportunity) which is the fact of buying at any price for fear of missing the increase.
In case of hyperinflation, which is a loss of confidence in the currency, nothing will protect your purchasing power better than precious metals.
Thanks to my friend H., we can just have a look at Venezuela. The country went from one Bolivar to another one : The Bolivar, to the Bolivar fuerte in 2008 (at the rate of 1 for 1,000) and to the Bolivar soberano in August 2018 (at the rate of 1 for 100,000).
The purchasing power of the currency is plunging, collapsing
Here is a long term chart (1914 – today)of the CRB Index (end of month) (LOG).
It represents a basket of 19 different commodities. Agricultural products and energy account for 80% of it and metals 20%.
We are approaching a major low so the end of the commodities bear market. Low prices are destroying supplies so when the current recession/depression will end, this index will start a new bull market. Time to put commodities producers on your radar so you know in advance what to buy when it will be time to do so.
Elliott Wave Analysis (made by one of my closest friend Mr H., thanks to him)
Discover a deposit, bring value, get the authorizations (permit), build it (financing) and put into production cannot be done as fast as some people love to think.
Hereafter some graphs showing the required duration for all steps to enter into production.
Ascertainment : It needs (average) 16,9 years. Some countries are showing a big spread between the shorter and the longer period. I assume it is because of the difficulties to get a permit (The Grail) and financing problems (difficult market, hard to raise money).
Last week, the US market (DOW JONES) ended with a loss of around 10% (minus 10%) on the week despite a Friday rebound of +10%.
When panic takes over the market and the investors, things you have never be able to imagine can happen. Unexpected events can also be a huge pricing surprise for unprepared products managers.
Today, I would like to mention the mining sector, which despite the”good” behavior of gold (only lost 10% from the top) went totally crazy.
Crazy pricing and moves occured
Incidentally (or not), $GDX is trading at over 7% below NAV, biggest discount on record.
If you are wondering what happened to GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, and JNUG last week. Look no further than an epic panic that it caused a breakdown in the arbitrage mechanism that is meant to price the ETFs relative to the underlying equities, which then led to a incredible mispricing in NUGT and JNUG.
3x leverage can cause huge damage. Look Friday – 46% (but as said above there was a mispricing !)
After hours it looks like the market is trying to re-price it correctly
Same story for the JNUG (also 3x leverage bull)
Also trying to balance the ETF price after hours….
The major point I would like to mention is the difference between the paper gold price and the physical gold price !
It looks like if you want a physical delivery it is becoming more and more difficult and also with a huge premium ! Premiums for the purchase of physical gold and silver 10-30% over spot futures prices. The physical market may be breaking free of the paper market, finally!
Next week will be really interesting, especially with all bad news from the closure of borders in Europe and a lot or restrictions due to the spread of COVID19.
The massive injections by the FED, ECB etc. can continue to lead to market craziness but do not forget. Money creation will bring a huge support to gold on the long run.
Physical gold is the only direct way to own gold. Eventually mining shares (direct holding as shareholder and final owner) is an indirect way to hold physical gold. This is not the case for mining ETF’s or gold ETF without physical gold behind and no physical delivery options.
Very often graphs are telling you more than 1,000 words.
1 – The weighting of the 5 major SP500 stocks is today at a record level.
2 – The Apple, AAPL case (imho) is showing the total exuberance of the stock market. The market capitalization of this company is now the equivalent of the entire Australian stock market !
3 – Apple Market cap is also bigger than the entire energy sector
4 – Price evolution of Apple is de-correlated with its earnings, leaving the gravity !
5 – On the market side, nobody seems really worried. Indexes are climbing every day higher. The very relevant indicator, the well-known PUT / CALL ratio is hitting a very low level. It means nobody has fear and everybody is positive on the future market raise.
6 – The number of “bears” seeing the fall of the SP500 is also at a low level
7 – The VIX index (volatility) is also at one of its lowest level
I am hearing analysts, people, bloggers expecting a continuation of the market rally and telling to whom who want to hear that “the pessimists will be decimated”.
8 – The US stock market valuation. Prices to estimated sales and estimated earnings are topping. P/E seems expensive (source Shiller)
9 – Finally the SP500 EV / EBITDA is at the same level than when the 2000 bubble exploded
10- Interest rates history can be also a trigger of the next stock market fall
All of above, is telling me it is smelling not good at all and something is cooking. It is pushing me to find another place where to put the money.
Gold is on the verge of a fantastic coming back up after its big fall from its top of 2011 (1900 USD) to its 2015 low (1050 USD). Gold is the underlying for mining shares and I would like to point the undervaluation of this sector.
A – First of all Gold has always kept its purchasing power against all the currencies
B – Gold has only been down 4 of past 20 years
C – Mining stocks compared to SP500 and vs Gold are cheap
D – Gold Miners are bottoming
E – Gold Mining Juniors are much cheaper than Seniors
As a global summary, I think it is time to leave the entire regular market to plunge into the mining sector. You can find different categories of companies, Producers (less risk but lower reward and also some stocks already responded to the last gold increase), developers (risky but big reward ahead especially when the project is in a safe jurisdiction and with a permit) and finally explorers (high risk and huge reward but also big losses).
I have identified a gold stock with a huge potential. If you want to know more about it you can contact me here : Contact
For the time being, the price of the underlying raised and some producers too (the quality one’s with low extraction costs).
For example Agnico eagle (EAM) (10 years graph)
The other ones are still lagging because they did not release profits yet (it is coming but they release only one quarter (Q3) with gold above 1300).
For example Iamgold et Argonaut
Today, the market is facing some end year sellings in Canada (tax loss) which put some pressure one the stock prices (as usual every year) but if -like in 2018) the sellings are a bit in calendar advance, it will possible to see a potential end year rally.
Anyway ! 2020 will be the year of the mining sector ! The companies are making a lot of money and saving a big amount of cash (margins increasing) and are going to make acquisitions (it has already started as you can notice these days)
A very close friend sent me some graphs and comments and I think it is valuable to read it.
I would like to present you the longest chart I have on a stock market: The British stock market.
The first chart is the stock market index in nominal terms.
Before the 20th century, stocks were a different investment. They were judge to be risky and had to offer big dividend yields to compensate for the risk. Dividend yields on stocks were higher than bond yields. But at the time, money was linked to gold (most of the time).
In the 20th century, everything changed.
During WWI, the gold standard was abandoned to finance the war.
Different attempts to link money to gold were tried at different times and at different prices.
Finally, in 1971, the gold standard was totally abandoned.
Money became totally fiat.
With no more restriction, money could be printed and printed which lead to the accelerating destruction of its purchasing power (see 2nd chart).
And log scale (awful view or the 99% loss, accelerating from around 1914)
If you take account of that, the performance of stocks over the long term (so in real terms) is quite different (see 3rd chart).
Now, in the last chart, I would like to show you how British stocks have performed against gold (see 4th chart). Here again, we have a totally different picture.
Some of you can say that I have to take in account the dividends received (if someone has the long datas with dividends, I would be glad to provide the information) but also we have to take in account some frictions like safe keeping feees, purchasing fees etc.)
There are times to own stocks, others to own gold…