Plusieurs fois dans mes billets je me suis avancé sur la possible (probable) correction à venir.
Le timing me fait défaut depuis un bon moment.
Les injections monétaires et taux d’intérêts négatifs tronquent complétement le jeu !
Je veux juste rendre attentif que je sens que nous ne sommes pas loin d’un top de marché important.
Quelques indicateurs qui me font penser cela.
Le graphique du Nasdaq
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50 years ago, on August 15, President Richard Nixon closed the “gold window”. It was a “temporary” measure according to what he said on TV this Sunday. With governments, temporary has a very different meaning…
Nixon was forced to do that: The US had printed too much dollars and had not enough gold to redeem all the foreign-held greenbacks.
Have a look at this hereafter chart and you’ll get it immediately.
We are in a pure fiat monetary system since then. Nothing backs the US dollar (or other currencies) except some “confidence”.
The US, supposedly, still have 8,135 tons of gold. The US government refused to audit the gold since 1953. Surprise, surprise…
And in the mean time China is claiming to have more than 14,000 tons :
both should be audited
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Without dividends, taxes and expenses…
Happy 50 debasement birthday !
And Inflation (transitory or permanent ?)
As already said real interest rates are key ! (reminder : https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/les-taux-montent-mais-quen-est-il-des-taux-reels/)
https://tradingeconomics.com (thanks to zerte for the table)
And on a long run
Amazing ! This is the only word I can tell today.
Despite increase in commodities prices, the GSCI commodity index cannot fight (till now) the skyrocketing US stock market.
I would like to mention that the biggest wheight in this index is Oil :
And oil went up recently.
But if we compare this commodity index to the US stock market, this is what we see
First graph vs the DJ index
And vs the SP500
Thanks to Willem Middelkoop for the graph
As already many times said, the stock market seems overvalued !
And the best of is : Precious metals vs commodities index ! If Commodities are low let me show you how low are the precious metals (thanks Crescat)
it is clearly a strong buy !
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At the opening of the commodity market, gold has been under a major attack.
In 2015, I told you about a violent downward opening (1050 USD per ounce) and then confirmed the increase to come when the price was still at 1300 (
What happened this morning very strongly looks like a “cleaning” of stop losses and “weak hands”.
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Dès l’ouverture du marché des matières premières, l’or a subi une attaque d’ampleur.
En 2015, je vous avais parlé d’une ouverture violente à la baisse (1050 USD l’once) et ensuite confirmé la hausse à venir lorsque le cours était encore à 1300 (
Ce qui s’est passé ce matin ressemble très fortement à un “nettoyage” des stop losses et “mains faibles”.
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