février 2018

Les mines vont suivre la hausse du cours de l’or et ce pourrait être violent

Olivier Crottaz Bourse étrangère, Matières Premières Métaux 24 février 20183 février 2021bullion, Gold, mines, or

Cher lecteurs,

dans un de mes précédent articles, j’avais lancé un cri d’achat sur l’or.

C’était à mi-octobre 2015 et le cours de l’or cotait aux environs de 1050 USD: https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/lor-et-les-mines-cest-parti-mon-goldy/

Depuis ce moment le cours de l’or s’est apprécié de 280 USD pour une performance de +26%, les mines ont suivi le mouvement.

En ce début d’année 2018, quelque chose de bizarre se passe :

Une grande dé-corrélation entre l’évolution du prix de l’or et celui des mines.

Je n’ai pas d’explication, mais probablement que les mines ne sont que du papier et qu’il est possible que les investisseurs ne comprennent pas vraiment cette industrie. Pour le moment le secteur semble mort, mais:

Mines will follow gold price increase and it could be violent

Olivier Crottaz Bourse étrangère, ENGLISH, Matières Premières Métaux 23 février 20183 février 2021bullion, discount, Gold, mines, shares, stocks

Dear readers,

In one of my past articles, I launched a screaming buy on gold.

It was mid October 2015 and gold price was quoting around 1050 $: https://www.crottaz-finance.ch/blog/lor-et-les-mines-cest-parti-mon-goldy/ (sorry only in french but fell free to use an internet translator, it works well)

From that period, the gold rallied 280 $ for a performance of +26%, mines followed the move.

This year 2018 something strange happened.

A big de-correlation between gold price evolution and mines

I have no explanation, but probably gold mines are paper gold and may be people do not really understand the industry. For the moment the sector looks like dead but:

The lack of volume is a good sign for a bottom, all the sellers have gone
people are very often selling the shares doing nothing to buy the trendy shares (often overvalued)

Today the mines are quoted with a discount regarding the bullion:

and gold vs mines on a long run show again the de-correlation.

I still think gold is going to continue its rally and will break the resistance (it already broke the down trend) and gold companies are going to release nice profits.

On a technical side:

My thoughts and believes are .

gold will continue to raise
gold mines have the best leverage as ever to enjoy gold rally
The producers are going to move first, then developers.
The developers have a higher reward ahead and can make a multiple
The producers are facing a decrease of their production and are going to be obliged to acquire high grade developer
The political environment is also a very important point

graph issued this article: http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-02-22/Canada-Is-The-New-Top-Mining-Destination-Worldwide-Survey.html